Structured Decision Making: The Six Factor Analysis Method

Faced with a complex problem with several possible solutions? Use the Six Factor Analysis method to assist with your decision making.

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Project Post Mortems

What should happen after a project winds down? Pick up some tips for a successful project post mortem.

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Good Decision Making: Avoid 7 ‘Quick Decision Pitfalls’

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Sometimes you have the luxury of taking a long time to gather information to make quality decisions.  Other times Good Decision Making needs to happen fast.  Below we talk about how to overcome seven of the pitfalls of quick decision making:

  • Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Ignoring the Decision
  • Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Going with your Gut
  • Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Involving too many people
  • Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Not Involving Others
  • Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Analysis Paralysis
  • Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Falling prey to the far-fetched or untested
  • Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Making decisions in haste

Good Decision Making Pitfall: Ignoring the Decision

It is true that if you want long enough, some decisions will go away, but do you really want them to?  Here are some of the possible outcomes of putting off decision:

  • Opportunities to improve pass you by.
  • You leave outcomes to chance, when you may have had a much better opportunity to influence the outcome.
  • People see you as indecisive and might even begin to work around you.
  • People might not consider you for challenging assignments or promotions.

Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Going with Your Gut

Your intuition is a powerful tool, but if you overestimate its worth, there are several potential consequences:

  • Increase the possibility that your decision will go wrong.
  • Gambling with your team’s productivity and morale.
  • Being seen as reckless and not “thoughtful”
  • Intuition is a by-product of experience and countless repetition.  If you don’t have experience in an area, it’s wise not to rely on intuition.  Your choice becomes more of a guess than a decision.

Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Involving too many people

Sometimes it makes a lot of sense to involve many people in a decision making process, and to gain consensus.  However, sometimes there are drawbacks to such an approach:

  • Automatically slows the decision-making process… wasting valuable time.
  • Building consensus is difficult to do quickly … so you risk upsetting people.

Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Not Involving Others

Conversely, some decisions do require the involvement of others, and sometimes leaving people out of decisions is at your peril:

  • You risk overlooking key elements that subject matter experts would have seen.
  • Those who will be affected by your decision might resent or resist it.

Carefully consider the appropriate number of people that should be involved in the decision.  The appropriate number is normally determined by:

a)    How quickly you need to execute the decision.

b)    How much buy-in you need from others, and how difficult that buy-in will be to achieve in your situation.

Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Analysis Paralysis

Some data and analysis often serves you well.  However, waiting for perfect information, or dissecting the information in infinite ways may unnecessarily delay a decision.  Some consequences of over-analyzing decisions:

  • Opportunities to improve pass you by.
  • Others who depend on you to make a quick decisions are unable to move ahead.
  • Productivity and morale suffer.

To avoid Analysis Paralysis, remember:

  • The 80/20 rule. You often can solve or understand 80 percent of a problem or situation with as little as 20 percent of the information, provided that it’s the right information. If you can get this vital 20 percent, press on.
  • Best/Worst case. Put each option you’re considering into perspective by asking yourself, “What’s the best that can happen?” and then “What’s the worst-case scenario if I choose this option?” Taking this approach also will help you quickly assess the relative risks of each option.
  • Mental simulations. In rapid decision situations, time is the enemy. You can’t afford to overanalyze, so take a much simpler route: For each option that seems reasonable, ask yourself, “What if” Play out the scenario in your head to identify potential outcomes.
  • Trends and patterns. Your decision will be easier—and quicker—if you can identify familiar trends and patterns. This is especially true if you’re relying on data to help you make your choice. Sometimes, knowing only the direction of the data is sufficient without knowing the numbers.

Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Falling prey to the far-fetched or untested

Under pressure, sometimes fantastic and far-fetched options can be considered.  While nothing should be immediately ruled out, you need to ground your options in reality.  The risks of not being grounded in reality are several:

  • You might overlook proven, workable options that are easier to implement.
  • Must take time to closely examine the implications of a far-fetched option (and, in doing so, possibly exhaust the time available).
  • You may build a reputation as a dreamer who can’t execute on the simple stuff.
  • Be sure that any option you’re considering is consistent with the organizational culture and that internal politics won’t be a roadblock.

Good Decision Making Pitfall:  Making decisions in haste

There is a difference between making a quality quick decision, and making a decision in haste.  Here are some pitfalls of making decisions in haste:

  • If you’ve assessed the situations incorrectly … maybe the decision doesn’t need to be made quickly.
  • The decision might generate more problems down the road.
  • You can gain a reputation for jumping to conclusions.
  • Speed and simplicity. Your ability to reduce the scope of the decision and the complexity of the process is key to making a rapid decision. Actively strive to keep things simple.

Three Things to Remember about Making Quality Quick Decisions:

  1. Determine whether a quick decision is appropriate for the situation, and then act accordingly.
  2. Narrow the number of options and cut through unnecessary information.
  3. Rely on your experience, good judgment, leadership intuition and subject matter experts as appropriate.

Watch the ‘3-Minute Crash Course’ about Good Decision Making (CLICK THE ARROW TO START THE VIDEO):

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Deciding What Sucks The Least

Back a few years ago, I was on the road more than twenty days per month.

In an effort to instill some element of normalcy to my life, I decided that every Thursday, no matter where I was, would be ‘movie night’.  As a result, I saw some truly awful movies.

I remember one summer evening in particular, standing in the lobby of a movie megaplex in Warrenville, Illinois, staring up at the marquis trying to make a decision about which movie sucked the least.  I selected “Planet of the Apes”, and quickly realized I’d made a horrible decision.

This is a parable for two lessons that have been instructional to me as a manager:

1.     Sometimes, you don’t always get to pick the best alternative, but you need to choose the one that sucks the least.  A case in point: voting.  For most of the Wily Manager audience, voting rates are less than 50%, and with due respect to the Australians – yours would be lower too, if voting weren’t required by law.  People need to stop looking for the best alternative, and vote for the one that sucks the least.  It’s a primary requirement for democracy:  reel in your expectations!

2.     Delaying a decision often doesn’t improve the quality of the outcome.  If I had agonized over the “Planet of the Apes” decision, and sent it to committee, and then deferred it until better information was available, I still would have ended up seeing a crappy movie – it might have just been with different actors.

Of course, the other obvious element to this story is that the movie actually didn’t matter all that much.  It was incredibly minor, and the net outcome of going to a movie, or not (or how bad that movie was) matters very little.  Yet, in organizations, we see minor decisions agonized over all the time.  People end up spending more time debating where to hold an offsite meeting than they would spend talking with a friend contemplating suicide.

New Rule (with full credit to Bill Maher):  If you’re going to spend more than one minute on inconsequential decisions, flip a coin.  If you end up being wrong, you can correct course quickly.

In my case, I could have left the movie, and gone for a walk along the river in Naperville.  But then, I never would have seen Charlton Heston dressed up as a filthy, stinking ape.

Often you’re forced to make quick management decisions that are more consequential than which movie sucks the least.  You’ll need to do more than flip a coin, because making quick decisions can be dangerous.  If you’re not careful, it’s easy to step right into one of the common pitfalls, like ‘Going With Your Gut’ (which can make you appear reckless).

The Good Decision Making Video and Cheat Sheet combo were just added to the Wily Manager membership area, and it’s one of over 90 topics available now.   In it, we show you how to avoid 7 common ‘quick decision pitfalls’, and make quality decisions when you don’t have the luxury of taking a long time to gather information.

Become a member and get 8 free bonus gifts worth $187, plus instant access to all the existing tools and advice already available in the members-only area.   It’s jam-packed with Videos, Cheat Sheets, and other tools…and new content is added each and every week.

Next week we’ll be talking about Influencing Your Boss – you’ll learn how to get your boss to do what YOU want, without being a manipulator.  You won’t want to miss out – become a Wily Manager Member today.

Project Management 101

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There are many different project management systems.  Below we talk about a few simple Project Management Steps:

  • Project Management Step 1: “What is a Project?”
  • Project Management Step 2:  Before the Project Plan
  • Project Management Step 3:  The Project Plan
  • Project Management Step 4:  Executing Your Plan
  • Potential Pitfalls with Project Management

Project Management Step 1:  “What is a Project?”

Projects are often confused with programs, or simply doing “business as usual.  Projects have unique characteristics:

  • A project is something that starts and ends.
  • A project may have similar elements to the core business, but is otherwise unique.
  • A project has a number of interconnected parts that are bound by a common goal

Project Management Step 2:  Before the Project Plan

Often people want to jump right into a project plan, but there are some things that need to be addressed first:

  • Articulate clear and specific goals and objectives for the project.
  • Ensure all stakeholders agree on objectives.
  • Identify potential risks to the project.
  • Identify measures of the project’s success.
  • Draft the most appropriate members to the project team.
  • Have a Steering Committee in place, to act as a “board of directors” to the project
  • Specify scope of the project and the terms of reference

Project Management Step 3:  The Project Plan

Building the Project Plan is perhaps the most critical of the steps, but be careful not to allow the writing of the plan to take more time and energy than executing the plan.

  • Identify major tasks and key milestones
  • Ensure all tasks have a clear connection to a goal or objective
  • Assign the most appropriate person to each task
  • Specify a deadline for tasks to be completed
  • Track costs and other resources

Project Management Step 4:  Executing the Plan

  • Communicate constantly.  A good project plan is a communication plan.  The project will not be successful without outstanding communication.
  • Meet with project team and steering committee at regular intervals
  • Manage other stakeholders as appropriate
  • Mitigate risks, and manage issues
  • Be flexible

Potential Pitfalls with Project Management

  • Over-planning the project.  Ensure planning the work does not eclipse doing the work.
  • Under-communicating progress and challenges.  You need to constantly make people aware of the project status.
  • Not connecting tasks to goals.  A task done in isolation is a task done in futility.  Tasks must be connected to higher-level goals.

3 things to Remember About Project Management

  1. Your project planning methodology matters less than the discipline you apply to it.
  2. Focus matters – the clearer your goals and objective, the higher your odds of success.
  3. Check out:  Campbell, Clark A., The One-Page Project Manager

Watch the ‘3-Minute Crash Course’ about Project Management Steps (CLICK THE ARROW TO START THE VIDEO):

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Don’t Fear Your Numbers

Twenty or so years ago, organizations would hire guys like us to come in and help them define metrics and measures.  Often times there were not adequate data collection and storage systems, so we ended up counting a lot of things manually, and then getting our crayons out to hand draw graphs to represent these indicators.

Skip ahead in time a couple of decades, and organizations are still hiring guys like us to help them with the measures and metrics, but now its usually because they have thousands upon thousands of data points, but no ability to turn this data into wisdom, and ultimately better business decisions.

Blame Microsoft.  They made it easy to have powerful spreadsheets and databasing capability on every desktop relatively cheaply.  Now the guy who runs the janitorial service at the office has a PC with more computing power than the Space Shuttle, and 500 indicators he’s tracking.  Bad news – if you have much more than half a dozen metrics you’re following, that’s not a scorecard… that’s a laundry list.

We also see it in any professional sport.  Did you know that in games that take place on the road, in the Central Time Zone, on odd-numbered days, in the same month as the coach’s birthday, when the starting line-up all had chicken for the dinner the previous night, the team has posted a win 58% of the time?

Now that’s valuable data.

Professional Sports organizations are very fat with cash – they can afford to waste some on useless statistics.  Your organization probably can’t.

You need to figure out what results your organization is trying to produce, and then determine the key drivers of those results.  For many organizations, the goal is to make money while minimizing various forms of risk.  What are the simple key drivers of these things?

Many managers are scared away from data because their accountant and their stats professor from college teamed up to make sure that any numbers were completely incomprehensible to the average human (and thereby keeping them both employed).

Yet, taking just a bit of time to better understand the key numbers in your business is time extraordinarily well spent.  And a fringe benefit is taking those numbers (that you now understand them) back to your stats-prof, or your accountant, and truly baffling them.

 

Scatterplot Graph: A Simple Decision-Making Tool for Managers

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The Scatterplot Graph is a simple technique that is not often used to help managers make better decisions.  Below we talk about the following aspects of the Scatterplot Graph:

  • Why would I use a Scatterplot Graph?
  • Types of correlations
  • Two Examples of how to use the Scatterplot Graph.
  • How to do a Scatterplot Graph

Why Would I Use a Scatterplot Graph?

  • The Scatterplot Graph can test for possible Cause & Effect Relationships.  There are a variety ways to do Cause & Effect analyses, but the Scatterplot Graph is a good place to start if you’ve got some data.
  • A Scatterplot Graph can be used for predictive action when the is a strong correlation between variables.  This is explained in further detail below.

Types of Correlations in a Scatterplot Graph

When gathering data points, a pattern may or may not emerge.  Here are how we label those patterns:

  • Positive correlation.  If two things are positively related, there will be a visible pattern on the Scatterplot Graph, that moves from the Southwest quadrant to the Northeast quadrant of the graph.  If you drew a line between the Scatter plots, most of the data points would be very close to the line.
  • Possible positive correlation.  This looks much like the pattern above, but the data points are a bit further from the trend line, and it is not as clear as to whether the variables are correlated.
  • No correlation.  The pattern of the data points on your Scatterplot Graph appear to be random.
  • Possible negative correlation.  If two things are possibly negatively correlated (ie: more of this is a cause of less of that), then the pattern on the Scatterplot Graph will generally move from the Northwest quadrant to the Southeast quadrant.  However, the distance from the trend line may make the pattern less distinct.
  • Negative correlation.  If two things are negatively correlated, the pattern will be the same as the one above, but will be much more easily recognized, and tightly connected to the trend line.

The R-Squared

Excel makes it easy to determine a trend line for any Scatterplot Graph.  Excel will also provide an equation for the line, and an R-squared statistic.  The R-squared stat measures the collective distance from the trend line of all the data points.  If something is highly correlated, the R-squared number will approach 1.  If the data points are not at all correlated, the R-squared number will approach 0.

Example 1

This is actual data from an industrial operation that was testing a theory that their production was largely based on the output of one machine.  After tracking their overall output, and the availability of the machine for 30 days, this Scatterplot Graph was produced, showing very little correlation between overall production, and the availability of the machine in question:

Scatterplot Graph

Example 2

This is actual data from a retailer that was trying to predict soft drink sales based on outside temperature.  As you can see, the Scatterplot Graph shows a very tight, positive correlation between the outdoor temperature, and the volume of soft drink sold.  As a result, the retailer could use the equation on the trend line to predict volume for inventory control purposes.

Scatterplot Graph

How to do a Scatterplot Graph

Some people will avoid doing a Scatterplot Graph because they think it is time consuming or difficult.  It is neither.  Here’s how to do it:

  • Determine what you are trying to test.  What two variables do you want to test a correlation for?  The examples above should provide some ideas.
  • Gather data (the more points, the better).  Ideally, you will want to track 30 – 50 data points as a minimum.
  • Put it into a spreadsheet.
  • Create a scatter graph.  This can be done with the “charts” function in Excel.
  • Ask for a trend line.  This is in the “tools” menu.
  • Ask for the equation.  You can do this by right-clicking on the trend line.

Three Things to Remember About the Scatterplot Graph

  1. Lies, damn lies and statistics.  You can probably find data to support anything, so make sure you leave your mind open to what the data you have is telling you.
  2. This is easy – do it once.  It is easy to dismiss this if you aren’t comfortable in Excel or with statistics.  It is actually very easy.
  3. Find someone you work with who is good with Excel if that is what it will take to get this done quickly.

Watch the ‘3-Minute Crash Course’ about the Scatterplot Graph (CLICK THE ARROW TO START THE VIDEO):

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Brainstorming Exercises

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Brainstorming is one of those simple tools that is poorly understood, and even more poorly used.  By using some simple Brainstorming Exercises, you can reap the maximum benefit from this simple concept.  Below, we talk about the following aspects of Brainstorming Exercises:

  • When (and when not) to use brainstorming exercises
  • Where Brainstorming Exercises fit in
  • Types of Brainstorming Exercises:
    • At a flipchart
    • The Affinity Diagram
    • The Delphi Method
    • The Stepladder technique
  • 3 things to remember about Brainstorming Exercises

When to Use Brainstorming Exercises:

Brainstorming Exercises are not something to do on a whim.  There are specific circumstances that best lend themselves to Brainstorming Exercises:

  • When you want to generate a number of ideas quickly.
  • When you want to engage a group or team in problem solving.
  • When you need to be innovative and creative.

When Not to Use Brainstorming Exercises:

Brainstorming Exercises are not to be used in all cases.  In particular, you should not use them:

  • When you already know the answer or solution you will use.  Never string people along giving them they illusion they have input, when they really don’t.
  • When you’re not looking for options or feedback.  In some cases, a manager will not want to solicit her team for feedback.
  • If you or your organization is too conservative to do anything differently.  If all of their ideas are going to be shot down, you are better off not asking your team for ideas.

Where Brainstorming Exercises fits in

Brainstorming is one piece of the process of generating ideas and implementing them:

  1. Frame the question.  Ensure you have a clear idea of the question your asking or problem you are trying to solve.
  2. Brainstorm ideas and options. Use some of the options here to generate ideas.
  3. Evaluate ideas and options. After brainstorming, you will want re-engage your more critical brain.
  4. Move to Action.  All the ideas you generate in a brainstorm are useless unless you do something about them.

Brainstorming Exercises

At a flipchart

  • Start with a specific question.  Ensure that your group all has a common understanding of the question or problem statement.
  • Use green-light thinking only.  There should be no evaluation or criticism at this point.
  • Use more than one scribe to get ideas happening in rapid succession.
  • Tell everyone to start their sentence with “Yes, and…” , and go around the group in sequence.
  • Once you have run out of ideas to write down, you can go back and begin to evaluate and condense your ideas.

Affinity Diagram

  • Start with a specific question.  Ensure that your group all has a common understanding of the question or problem statement.
  • Have everyone write his/her ideas on a Post-It note.
  • Assign two people to put the Post-Its into categories.
  • Get two more people to edit the categories yet again
  • If there are a large number of ideas, you may want to refine the categories several times.

Delphi Method

  • Start with a clear question.  Ensure that your group has a common understanding of the question or problem statement.
  • Have people write down their ideas anonymously, and send them to a facilitator, or collector of ideas that is viewed as neutral.
  • This is normally done outside of a meeting.
  • Schedule a meeting and present all the ideas generated to the participants.
  • Evaluate and condense ideas.

Stepladder technique

  • Provide a clear question to all members of the group.  Ensure that your group all has a common understanding of the question or problem statement.
  • Have two members meet to discuss their individual ideas one on one.
  • Introduce a third member who presents her ideas to the first two.  The first two member would then discuss their ideas with the newcomer.
  • Add group members one at a time.  This can be done over the course of several meetings.
  • Once all group members have contributed, evaluate and condense ideas.

3 Things to Remember About Brainstorming Exercises

  1. Brainstorming isn’t a free-for-all.  To get the benefit from brainstorming, you should put some structure around it.
  2. There are variations that may be more appropriate to your situation.
  3. Beware of the extroverts, and encourage the introverts.  Extroverts are very comfortable throwing ideas around and verbalizing their ideas.  Introverts have as much to contribute, but need to be drawn out.

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Bias for Action, Absence of Thinking

“A bias for action” – this has become a buzz-phrase I’ve noticed lately, and it makes my skin crawl the same way as when some one uses the word “irregardless”.  This is the curse of several years of studying English at University.

I’ll be the first guy to encourage people to actually get things done, but if I’m going to have a bias for something, I’d prefer it be a bias for thinking.  Simply put, any action you take that is not preceded by some thinking is a waste of time that will ultimately cost you much more time in the long run.

In many situations, the thinking involved need be brief.  Unless you’re planning a moon landing, the amount of time writing and refining plans quickly hits diminishing returns.  To spend even a few minutes thinking about something, and perhaps handwriting one page on what you are trying to achieve, the benefits, risks, and involvement required from others will save you a huge amount of time in the long run.

Here are some of my favorite business moments that demonstrated a bias for action, and an absence of thinking:

New Coke:  Turns out people liked the old coke better, and the company spent millions to undo their action

Moving Jay Leno from the Tonight Show:  NBC had a problem as to what to do with Conan O’Brien, but didn’t think too long about any of these decisions.  Oh well… what’s $40 million between friends?

Ford Motor Company and the Pinto:  It seems it was cheaper to pay wrongful death suits than it was to recall the exploding Pinto.  Apparently the guys running Ford at the time had the Wizard of Oz trifecta:  No brains, no heart, no courage.

US IRS and tax evaders: The US Revenue Service has decided recently to go after tax evaders in Canada and the UK.  Newsflash: people looking to evade taxes don’t move to higher tax jurisdictions that have comprehensive tax treaties with the United States.  If any thought had been put into this, they would realize the housewife who moved to Canada as a child probably isn’t as promising a source of revenue as the corporate executive that moved to Grand Cayman.

Think, then act.  You’d be surprised how well it works.

 

7 Steps to Writing a Business Case

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Below we discuss Writing a Business Case in seven easy steps.  Specifically, we discuss:

  • What is a Business Case?
  • Why you should bother Writing a Business Case.
  • Seven steps to Writing a Business Case
  • Three things to remember about Writing a Business Case

What is a Business Case?

A Business Case is a document you create in order to help you get approval or financial commitment to a project or change initiative.

Why Bother Writing a Business Case?

  • It will help you to organize your thoughts and test your ideas.  Some things seem like great ideas initially, but after you put some structured thought into it, several questions may arise.
  • It will help you clarify and focus your efforts.  Just a little bit of structure can assist you in the implementation of your idea.
  • It will aid you in ultimately selling your project or change initiative to stakeholders.
  • It will provide the basis for more detailed project planning upon approval.

Seven Steps to Writing a Business Case

  1. Create a Backround (or Project Definition) Statement: The first step to Writing a Business Case is to explain the background of the project or initiative.  In this phase, you need to provide just enough information to inform the reader as to why you’re bringing the idea or subject up.
  2. State the Objectives (Future State or Desired Outcome): What are your specific objectives for this project or initiative? What is it that you are going to deliver?  Try to articulate the root value of the opportunities that you are planning for. Imagine an investor sitting across the table from you: Why would she give you money or otherwise invest in your project?
  3. Describe the Current Situation: Now that you’ve defined your future state, you need to determine where you currently are on that journey.   Make sure you include facts, figures, and data wherever possible.  You need to create a compelling argument that highlights the gap between desired state and current situation.
  4. Put Forth a Recommendation or Solution: If you’ve followed the above steps, you’ve created a hunger in your audience for some sort of change.  Now you need recommend what that change should be.  Articulate your ideas as clearly as possible.  This section could include a few different options, but ultimately you should commit to a specific recommendation.
  5. Determine Your Success Criteria and Measures: How you will measure the success of the project?  What will change as a result of your intervention?  Note that your success criteria must be measurable.  The return on investment should be included in this section.
  6. Determine Your Support Required: A key part of writing a business case, is to determine who you need support from and letting them know exactly what you need from them.  You can’t point fingers after the fact.  Indicate what support you need from outside resources to achieve your goals.  This includes the resources required in terms of time, effort, tools, money, and other resources.
  7. Articulate Next Steps and the Timeline: Once you have approval for your business case what are some key milestones that come next?  When will you commit to finish/deliver?

Three Things to Remember About Writing a Business Case

  1. Ensure that the document is clear and succinct.  Minimize the use of jargon, and speak in clear and concise terms.
  2. Include factual information – you’ve done your homework here’s your chance to prove it.
  3. Sell it!  Speak to people about the benefits of pursuing your idea.  Demonstrate the value the project brings to the organization, customer and financial bottom line of the company.

Watch the ‘3-Minute Crash Course’ about Writing a Business Case (CLICK THE ARROW TO START THE VIDEO):

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